Economic Strength
In order to understand the relative economic strength of China compared to other world powers, metrics regarding overall output and trade, competitiveness and innovation, and potential for future productivity will be analyzed. The primary metric to understand overall output and trade of China relative to other nations will be gross domestic product (GDP). China’s GDP was $14.3 trillion USD in 2019, second only to the United States at $21.4 trillion USD[1]. The rate of China’s GDP growth, however, is the most telling. In 1980, China’s GDP was less than $300 billion USD, but by 2015 it had grown to $11 trillion for an average growth rate of 10% per year[2]. When compared to the United States’ progress when it overtook Great Britain to become the world's largest economy between 1860 and 1913, the US grew at an average rate of 4% per year[3]. Although China’s rate of growth has been slowing down from its previous 10% per year averages, it is still expanding quickly. The Centre for Economic and Business Research has forecasted that China’s GDP will surpass that of the United States in 2028 to become the world's largest economy[4].
Another important economic factor to consider is how competitive and innovative the Chinese market is compared to the rest of the world. The World Economic Forum has created a Global Competitiveness Index that “measures national competitiveness as the set of institutions, policies and factors that determine the level of productivity”[5]. The report places China 28th in the world overall, compared to the United States in 2nd place, with Singapore coming in 1st[6]. On the surface it seems that China still has a long way to go towards fostering the competitive conditions necessary for real novel productivity in their marketplace. This can be slightly misleading, however, since China is ranked near the top for their competitiveness in technology. China is 4th overall in technology governance, and 2nd for research institution prominence[7]. By comparison, the United States is 1st overall in technology governance, and 1st for research institution prominence[8]. China is heavily prioritizing their competitiveness and innovation in technology. Considering how important technology and data are increasingly becoming, China has positioned itself strategically for the future.
The final metric to consider for determining China’s relative economic strength is its education levels, since a well educated population is the most important element in long term productivity of a nation's economy[9]. In 1980, 1% of China’s population had a post-secondary education. Today 12% of China’s population has a post-secondary education[10]. By comparison, the United States in 1980 had 17% of its population with a post-secondary education and currently has 28% of its citizens with higher education[11]. Today a total of 60 million people in the United States have a post-secondary education compared to 120 million people in China[12].
Out of those citizens in the United States, 8 million of them today hold a major in the STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) fields[13]. China by contrast has 21 million people with STEM majors[14]. China’s educated population is rising dramatically, and with the concentration on STEM majors, China’s long term productivity in the technology sector will be strong.
China’s relative economic strength when compared to the United States is very strong. Their GDP is on track to surpass the United States within a decade. China’s potential for future productivity, especially in the important technology sector, is also very strong compared to the United States considering their educational development. The powerful Chinese economy is facilitating China’s development in other areas.
Military Strength
The next category that must be considered to determine China’s status as a great power is its relative military strength. Considering China’s strong economy, GDP can be a good metric to understand the potential China has for expanding its military capabilities. China’s current budget of $261 billion USD places China second in spending only to the United States at $732 billion[15]. For comparison, third and fourth place belong to India and Russia at $71 and $65 billion respectively[16]. China has a military budget that is four times larger than Russia’s. However, the rate at which China’s military spending has grown is perhaps the most impressive. In 1995, China’s military spending was $12.5 billion USD compared to the United States’ $278.9 billion[17]. While American military spending has grown 2.6 times since then, China’s has grown an incredible 20.8 times. Considering these trends, China’s military spending gap with the United States will be dwindling as time goes on.
Military spending translates into tangible capabilities which are starting to be demonstrated in the relative strength of China’s military compared to the United States. The RAND corporation has compiled a scorecard of relative military strength between the US and China if conflict were to occur in the South China Sea[18]. The report done in 2015 found that China by 2017 would have an “advantage” or “approximate parity” in six of the nine operational areas including air base attacks, space intervention, and air superiority[19]. China’s nuclear arsenal has also grown, with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reporting that China currently has the third largest stockpile of nuclear weapons at 320 warheads in total[20]. The Cold War powers of the US and Russia of course still have the largest inventories of nuclear weapons, but China is developing its capabilities rapidly. According to SIPRI “China is in the middle of a significant modernization and expansion of its arsenal”[21].
Considering China's military budget, growth rates of military spending, conventional military capabilities, and its developing nuclear arsenal, China has become a great power in terms of relative military strength. Military potential is extremely important when assessing China’s ability to secure its interests in the world.
Political Position
The final component to conclude this assessment of China as a great power is an analysis of its political position among nations. Political position and relations with other nations are important in determining China’s political weight when it comes to influencing other nations and securing its interests. China has been seeking to politically position itself as a leader in the international system. After the US refused to allow China a larger share of votes at the World Bank in 2013, Beijing set up its own competitive institution, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) where fifty-seven nations, including the UK, signed up before it launched[22]. These actions show that China is looking to create its own spheres of influence [23].
China is growing its geopolitical influence further through the development of the Belt and Road Initiative. The project will set up infrastructure to allow more trade spanning across Asia, the middle east, Africa, and through to Europe[24]. It has been called a new “silk road” connecting China to the west. It will cost nearly $1.4 trillion, which “even after adjusting for inflation, this amounts to 12 Marshall Plans”[25]. This extremely expensive project is not only attempting to facilitate trade, but is also a political strategy for China to secure more geopolitical influence.
The United States, of course, still has the most weight among international institutions (like the UN, WTO, World Bank, and IMF) which they use as “an effective and congenial vehicle for the promotion of America’s objectives”[26]. Despite the American dominance of the international system, China is undoubtedly staking out their own foothold of the international system through projects such as the ones mentioned above. As Harvard School of Government professor Graham Allison has put it, “China’s economic network is spreading across the globe, altering the international balance of power in a way that causes even longtime US allies in Asia to tilt from the US towards China” [27]. China’s political position and influence is growing, and even in some cases challenging the current hegemon's position in the international system.
In conclusion, China has become a great power by all the metrics measured here. Its economic strength, military strength, and political position relative to the United States is substantial, and the trends don’t seem to be slowing down dramatically any time soon. Therefore, China is a great power, and if any question remains of its status, it is whether China will challenge the US in coming decades for hegemon status. If that occurs, which according to most analysts is already underway, more questions arise about whether it will be cooperative or conflictual in nature[28].
References [1] “GDP (Current US$),” The World Bank, accessed March 19, 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=truehttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.jstor.org%2Fstable%2Fresrep10139. [2] Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? (New York, New York: First Mariner Books, 2017), 6-7. [3] Ibid. [4] “World Economic League Table 2021,” CEBR, December 26, 2021, https://cebr.com/service/macroeconomic-forecasting/, 71. [5] Klaus Schwab, “The Global Competitiveness Report,” World Economic Forum, October 9, 2019, http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2019.pdf, xiii. [6] Ibid. [7] Ibid., 157 [8] Ibid., 585 [9] Ray Dalio, “Chapter 4: The Big Cycles of the Dutch and British Empires and Their Currencies,” The Changing World Order, May 26, 2020, https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/#chapter4. [10] Ray Dalio, “Chapter 6: The Big Cycles of China and Its Currency,” The Changing World Order, September 14, 2020, https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/#chapter6. [11] Ibid. [12] Ibid. [13] Ibid. [14] Ibid. [15] “Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2019,” SIPRI, April 2020, https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf, 2. [16] Ibid. [17] “SIPRI Yearbook 2000: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security,” SIPRI, 2000, https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/SIPRI%20Yearbook%202000.pdf, 236. [18] Eric Heginbotham, et al., The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996–2017. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2015. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR392.html. [19] Ibid.; Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? (New York, New York: First Mariner Books, 2017), 20. [20] “10. World Nuclear Forces,” SIPRI, 2020, https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2020/10. [21] Ibid. [22] Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? (New York, New York: First Mariner Books, 2017), 22. [23] Ibid. [24] Andrew Chatzky and James McBride, “China's Massive Belt and Road Initiative,” Council on Foreign Relations (Council on Foreign Relations, January 28, 2020), https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative. [25] Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? (New York, New York: First Mariner Books, 2017), 22 [26] Rosemary Foot, S. Neil MacFarlane, and Michael Mastanduno, “U.S. Hegemony and International Organizations,” Foreign Affairs, January 29, 2009, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2003-09-01/us-hegemony-and-international-organizations. [27] Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? (New York, New York: First Mariner Books, 2017), 24. [28] Michael Pillsbury’s book The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower as well as Graham Allison’s Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? are excellent sources that analyze China’s competition for hegemon status with the United States.
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